What we know today as the Outcome Bias was clear to Michel de Montaigne five centuries ago – we are rarely in complete control over the outcomes of our decisions, and often we’re not to…
Tag: Decision Making
Outcome Bias – Never Judge Decisions by Their Outcome
How often do we stress about the unfavorable outcomes of our decisions. It makes us feel we should have known better. However, it turns out that we’re often wrong in judging our decisions after the…
The Difference Between First- and Second-Level Thinking and Why It Matters
[…] It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. – Charlie Munger In his book The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks describes Second-level thinking in the following way: First-level thinking…
Ray Dalio on Approximations and Effective Decision Making
[…] For me, getting an accurate picture of reality ultimately comes down to two things: being able to synthesize accurately and knowing how to navigate levels.…Every day you are faced with an infinite number of…
Sherlock Holmes on The Importance of a Blank Mind
[…] “Shall I go for the police?”We must define the situation a little more clearly. It may bear some more innocent interpretation. (Holmes; The Red Circle) We approached the case…with an absolutely blank mind, which…
Jeff Bezos on Making Smart and Fast Decisions
One common pitfall for large organizations – one that hurts speed and inventiveness – is “one-size-fits-all” decision making. Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible – one-way doors – and these decisions must…
Paul Graham on Speed vs Reliability
[…] And paying attention is more important to reliability than moving slowly. Because he pays close attention, a Navy pilot can land a 40,000 lb. aircraft at 140 miles per hour on a pitching carrier…